根据中国银行及毕马威等权威机构的预测，2025年中国GDP增长预计将维持在5%左右，展现出极强的韧性 [1, 5]。进入2026年，作为“十五五”规划的开局之年，经济增速目标或将设定在4.5%至5.0%的区间 [6, 7, 8]。这种减速并非单纯的增长动力缺失，而是政策层面主动进行的“反内卷”干预，旨在通过整治非理性竞争和清理低效产能，修复价格信号，为具备创新溢价的微观经营主体提供健康的利润空间 [2, 5, 9]。
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Since the 1960s, global GDP has been rapidly rising and living standards have reached record highs. But something else has been rocketing up too – carbon emissions. For years, scientists and economists have been asking: is it possible to grow without heating and polluting the Earth? And as the climate becomes more unstable, the issue is only becoming more urgent. Madeleine Finlay hears from two economists arguing for a change in how we measure a country’s success. Nick Stern is professor of economics and government at the London School of Economics and an advocate of green growth, an approach to growth that prioritises green industry. Jason Hickel is a political economist and professor at the Autonomous University of Barcelona who advocates degrowth, shrinking parts of the economy that do not advance our social and ecological goals.
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Things Fall Apart